UKRAINE REPORT #4

00:00-16:00 2 MAR 2022

RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT IN UKRAINE ON 2 MAR 2022

- source for map: @War_Mapper on Twitter -

Map of approximate Russian-held territory as of 12:00 UTC+1. Why that map is different to previously posted maps: Most maps are much more generous with the territory they give to Russia. They do it because there is very limited or no Ukrainian military presence in that area. Or they’re just trying to spread propaganda. That new map is just a bit more accurate to actual Russian positions. - Seldom News

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Most significant territorial changes compared to yesterday:

• The conformation of reports I read around 21:00 last night that the port city of Mariupol, in the southeast, has been fully encircled with unknown amount of Ukrainian troops trapped. This came in overnight.

• Kharkiv in the northeast has been almost fully encircled by Russian forces. I expect the pincer-move to close around the city later tonight or early tomorrow as heavy shelling continues.

• Last Russian reports from its Ministry of Defense on city of Kherson, across the Dnjepr in the south, claims a withdraw of Ukrainian forces in the area. Mayor of Kherson denies this as heavy fighting continues.

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KEY EVENTS 2 MAR 08:00-16:00

(08:30) The European Commission has proposed to grant temporary protection to people fleeing war in Ukraine, including a residence permit and access to employment and social welfare. - The Guardian

This makes it quite obvious how the EU fell short - to say the least - dealing with previous migrant influxes.

(09:15) The Ukrainian president Zelenskiy, stated nearly 6,000 Russian casualties in the first six days of Moscow’s invasion, and that the Kremlin would not be able to take his country with bombs and airstrikes.

The first claim is unconfirmed and seems rather high but death toll is very difficult to confirm during the fog of war currently. The second claim is more significant is increasingly likely Ukraine’s troops will dig in around urban centers preparing for the Russian sieges of major cities the coming days. This can get real ugly, real fast.

(10:00) European Union diplomats have approved new sanctions against Belarus for its supporting role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. - EU

After last year’s migrant crisis EU officials adopted at least five sanction packages on Belarus. However, in the first three quarters of 2021 the EU imported 96.1% more from Belarus than the same period last year. Lets see if barking dogs do bite when national security is on the line.

(10:10) Reports of an airborne assault on Kharkiv trying to seize the southeast side of the city while Russian missiles hit the police headquarters in the city.

This would account for the rapid pincer move around Kharkiv during the night and is confirmed at around 13:00 by Russia.

(10:45) China won’t join the US and European governments in imposing financial sanctions on Russia. - AP

This was to be expected, as Russia was left significantly more vulnerable if they had not gotten presumed unofficial reassurances that China would remain neutral. Beijing does walk a very fine line between neutrality with Russia and their apparent concern for civilian safety on the world stage.

(11:45) A second round of talks between Ukraine and Russia will take place later today. - TASS

(12:00) Disheartening footage of mob justice taken in Melitopol shows men accused of looting being tied up around streetlights and beaten. These violent outbreaks will increase as supplies run low for the panicked population of cities under (fear of) siege. - Video from Seldom News

(12:30) Kherson Mayor denies Russia has taken the city in conflicting reports on the situation there. - The Guardian

(12:45) A new batch of Turkish Bayraktar drones have arrived in Ukraine. The Ukrainian MoD says they’re already being put to use in combat. - Ukrainian MoD

(14:30) Ukrainian media have reportedly been replacing Ukrainian flags with “Z” to pass them off as captured equipment. Ukraine obviously captures Russian equipment, but not as much as Ukrainian media suggests. - Seldom News

Not yet confirmed as I only found Seldom News (independent) quoting Russian sources, but this seems plausible to me.

(3:30) The battle for Kyiv is playing out in and outside of the city as Russian forces try to surround the Ukrainian capital at great cost, face staunch Ukrainian defensive operations reports - @LeBeckInt on Twitter

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~ No further personal notes as work, studies and sleep are apparently still necessary during these times . Tomorrow I will try to post a ‘Geopolitics 101’ section including a brief overview how we got to the current situation in terms of international politics from 1990-2022. ~

Thanks for reading,

Sam

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